RESEARCH SYSTEM / ARG-R01 / LIMA — WORLDWIDE1 / 4
00 / CONTROLLED EVIDENCE / STRUCTURAL QUESTIONS
Models are easy.Validation is the hard part.
I study forecasting, counterfactual evaluation, simulation, and applied machine learning—especially where observational accuracy can conceal structural failure.
COUNTERFACTUALSFORECASTINGSIMULATIONMACROECONOMICS
RESEARCH THESIS / ARG-R01
The central research program: create environments where the quantity we care about is actually observable, then test whether our usual model-selection criteria deserve trust.
BASEBCRP + INDEPENDENTMETHODCONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTSOUTPUTPAPERS + SYSTEMSSTATUSACTIVE